Resumo

GARCIA GUERRERO, Víctor Manuel  e  ORDORICA MELLADO, Manuel. Stochastic Projection of Mexican Mortality through the Lee-Carter Method. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2012, vol.27, n.2, pp.409-448. ISSN 2448-6515.

This study uses the Lee-Carter method to project mortality in Mexico. This method assumes a linear connection between the natural logarithm of the central rates of mortality and age and time. One of its advantages is that it is parsimonious, since it combines a demographic model with few assumptions with the analysis of time series. Another advantage is that it is possible to measure the uncertainty associated with the mortality event and thus calculate confidence intervals. The forecast of life expectancy at birth for female population to 2050 foresee, with 95% of confidence that it could vary between 83.53 and 86.40 years and in the case of men, would oscillate between 78.53 and 80.53 years.

Palavras-chave : Mexican mortality; projection of mortality; demographic methods; stochastic forecast; Lee-Carter method.

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