Resumo

ORDORICA, Manuel. Evolution of the Population of Mexico, 1980-2005, under the Hypothesis of a Logistic Demographic Growth Rate. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2008, vol.23, n.3, pp.455-479. ISSN 2448-6515.  https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v23i3.1318.

In demographic research, several mathematical functions have been developed to represent the evolution of the population, including the exponential and logistic function. None of these functions fits reality perfectly, however, since the hypotheses underlying these mathematical representations fail to describe population dynamics. The aim of this study is to construct a mathematical function that approaches the description of the dynamics of the total population of Mexico between 1980 and 2005, while accurately reproducing the path of the population growth rate observed during this period. It therefore carries out a forecast of the population on the basis of the mathematical function found. It also carried out a forecast of the population in a municipality with very few inhabitants, in order to test the formula in this case study and compare its results with those of other forecasting methods.

Palavras-chave : population forecasts; exponential function; logistic function; stable populations; unstable populations; quasi-stable populations; population growth; demographic dynamics; population policy; Kalman filter.

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