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Estudios demográficos y urbanos

versão On-line ISSN 2448-6515versão impressa ISSN 0186-7210


HAM CHANDE, Roberto. Survival beyond the Age of One Hundred. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2005, vol.20, n.1, pp.103-124.  Epub 17-Out-2019. ISSN 2448-6515.

Mexico shows a demographic dynamic towards ageing with evidence of an accumulation of persons of extreme ages. As a result, maximum longevity, type of mortality, life expectancy, causes of death, states of health and the presence of disabilities are becoming increasingly important. Although the factors that determine ageing at the cusp of ages and their consequences still require identification, concepts, reliable information and appropriate methodology, estimates and perspectives have yet to be carried out using indirect methods. The calculations of mortality and population structures of the National Population Council and the demographic reconstruction from 1930 constituted an advance that enabled demographers to make forecasts. The 2000 version included the open group of those ages 100 and over, from 1930 to the 2050 forecast. Although prior to the year 2000, the limit of 100 years and over was sufficient for drawing up population structures and mortality tables, from that year onwards, it proved insufficient for undertaking forecasts, meaning that the group ages 100 and over needs to be broken down into smaller sub-divisions.

One suggestion is to assume Gompertz behavior in mortality on the basis of the right dx mode, even though this overestimates mortality in extreme old age, as a result of which survival rates are higher than those calculated. The dx distribution adjusts to a normal curve on the right side, whose mean increases over time, while standard deviations decreases, which corresponds to the expected shape based on experience and theoretical proposals. This shape enables one to make conjectures about maximum longevity, which was apparently 109 years in 2000 and 114 in 2050. If one also considers the potential advances in health care programs, new medication and genetic therapy, then this is definitely an underestimation.

Palavras-chave : ageing; longevity; mortality; demography.

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