Resumo

RIOS-ALEJANDRO, José G.. Extreme temperatures in the city of Monterrey N. L. México. Rev. Chapingo [online]. 2011, vol.17, n.2, pp. 225-230. ISSN 0186-3231.  http://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2010.06.036.

Considered as a random variable, the lowest temperature of the year in the city of Monterrey, N.L, Mexico is modeled with the Gumbel distribution. Its parameters and some return levels are estimated. Let x be the minimum temperature of the year. In extreme value theory, risk is assessed with x_p where the probability that (in a period) x is less than x_p ¡s equal to p, so that 1/p is the average number of periods (years) that elapse until the annual minimum temperature is less than x_p. In addition, x_p is estimated for some values of p, information which is considered important for decision makers. Linear regression, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methodologies are applied.

Palavras-chave : Extreme values; Gumbel distribution; return level.