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Revista Chapingo. Serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente

Print version ISSN 0186-3231


RIOS-ALEJANDRO, José G.. Extreme temperatures in the city of Monterrey N. L. México. Rev. Chapingo [online]. 2011, vol.17, n.2, pp.225-230. ISSN 0186-3231.

Considered as a random variable, the lowest temperature of the year in the city of Monterrey, N.L, Mexico is modeled with the Gumbel distribution. Its parameters and some return levels are estimated. Let x be the minimum temperature of the year. In extreme value theory, risk is assessed with xp where the probability that (in a period) x is less than xp ¡s equal to p, so that 1/p is the average number of periods (years) that elapse until the annual minimum temperature is less than xp. In addition, xp is estimated for some values of p, information which is considered important for decision makers. Linear regression, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methodologies are applied.

Keywords : Extreme values; Gumbel distribution; return level.

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