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## Revista Chapingo. Serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente

*Print version* ISSN 0186-3231

#### Abstract

RIOS-ALEJANDRO, José G.. **Extreme temperatures in the city of Monterrey N. L. México**.* Rev. Chapingo* [online]. 2011, vol.17, n.2, pp.225-230.
ISSN 0186-3231. http://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2010.06.036.

Considered as a random variable, the lowest temperature of the year in the city of Monterrey, N.L, Mexico is modeled with the Gumbel distribution. Its parameters and some return levels are estimated. Let *x* be the minimum temperature of the year. In extreme value theory, risk is assessed with ** x_{p}** where the probability that (in a period)

**is less than**

*x***x**¡s equal to

_{p}**, so that**

*p***1/**is the average number of periods (years) that elapse until the annual minimum temperature is less than

*p***. In addition,**

*x*_{p}**is estimated for some values of**

*x*_{p}

*p**,*information which is considered important for decision makers. Linear regression, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methodologies are applied.

**Keywords
:
**Extreme values; Gumbel distribution; return level.