Abstract

CEREZO GARCIA, Verónica. Exchange rate and economic growth in Mexico. Contad. Adm [online]. 2021, vol.66, n.3, 00016.  Epub Feb 07, 2022. ISSN 0186-1042.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fca.24488410e.2021.3116.

Mexico's rate of inflation has remained low and stable, while the average growth rate of output (2.5%) has been stagnant over the period 2001-2018, despite the continuous expansion of exports. The persistent stagnation of the Mexican economy and other Latin American economies has prompted some authors to maintain that slow growth results from the Central Banks' practice of appreciating the exchange rate with the aim of anchoring inflation, hence the acceleration of economic growth depends on adopting a competitive exchange rate. In order to test this hypothesis, a regression model with breaks is used to estimate an equilibrium exchange rate; then, a NARDL model is estimated to determine exchange rate deviations (appreciations and depreciations) from the equilibrium value. It is empirically shown that a competitive and stable exchange rate per se was unable to accelerate output growth over the period 1993-2018.

Keywords : Exchange rate; Economic growth; Econometric models; Mexico.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )