Abstract

DIAZ CARRENO, Miguel Ángel; MEJIA REYES, Pablo; ERQUIZIO ESPINAL, Alfredo  and  RAMIREZ RODRIGUEZ, Roberto. Recession in the Mexican States: magnitude and causes. Contad. Adm [online]. 2015, vol.60, suppl.2, pp.147-168. ISSN 0186-1042.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2015.05.005.

This paper analyzes the role of trade, output structure and the capital flows on the drop of the output into Mexican states during the Great Recession (2007-2009) by using nonparametric regression approach. The results shows that the main variables that explain the state output drops, measured on the basis of the state coincident index (ICE) and the manufacturing production index (MAN), are the ratios of the "maquiladora" and the automotive production to the manufacturing production (Maq/Man and A/Man, respectively), while when output drops are measured by using the quarterly indicator of the state economic activity (QIEEA), variables such as Maq/Man and the specialization indicator of the automotive production (IE-A) were the most significant explicative variables.

Keywords : Mexican States; Great Recession; Non parametric regression.

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