Abstract

DE LLANO MONELOS, Pablo; PINEIRO SANCHEZ, Carlos  and  RODRIGUEZ LOPEZ, Manuel. DEA as a business failure prediction tool: Application to the case of galician SMEs. Contad. Adm [online]. 2014, vol.59, n.2, pp.65-96. ISSN 0186-1042.

In the research group we are working to provide further empirical evidence on the business failure forecast. Complex fitting modelling; the study of variables such as the audit impact on business failure; the treatment of traditional variables and ratios have led us to determine a starting point based on a reference mathematical model. In this regard, we have restricted the field of study to non-financial galician SMEs in order to develop a model¹ to diagnose and forecast business failure. We have developed models based on relevant financial variables from the perspective of the financial logic, voltage and financial failure, applying three methods of analysis: discriminant, logit and multivariate linear. Finally, we have closed the first cycle using mathematical programming -DEA or Data Envelopment Analysis- to support the failure forecast. The simultaneous use of models was intended to compare their respective conclusions and to look for inter-relations. We can say that the resulting models are satisfactory on the basis of their capacity for prediction. Nevertheless, DEA contains significant points of criticism regarding its applicability to business failure.

Keywords : DEA operational research; business failure; forecast.

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