Resumo

GONZALEZ-EGUINO, Mikel. Economic impact of Post-Kyoto scenarios in Spain. Inv. Econ [online]. 2010, vol.69, n.271, pp.139-176. ISSN 0185-1667.

The costs of greenhouse effect gases (GHG) mitigation in the long run will be heavily influenced by technological and economic parameters. However, there are other variables of a political nature that are of great importance and which need to be investigated. This article focuses on analyzing the effect on the choice of mitigation targeting and timing. With this purpose, a Ramsey type dynamic applied general equilibrium model (AGE) is used to the case of Spain. The results show that the costs of post-Kyoto phase can be maintained at acceptable levels, if the necessary steps towards a low-carbon economy are induced. It also notes that the influence of the timing is not significant compared with the relevance of stronger targets. However, provided that technology advances at the current levels, a reduction of emissions 15% above Kyoto levels implies a doubling of the mitigation costs in the future.

Palavras-chave : climate change; applied general equilibrium models; Spain.

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