Abstract

MENDOZA PICHARDO, Gabriel. Economic Growth Models and Growth Tendencies in Major Latin American Countries and in the United States, 1963-2003. Inv. Econ [online]. 2007, vol.66, n.262, pp.59-87. ISSN 0185-1667.

This paper discusses the usefulness of the Duménil-Lévy and Foley-Michl growth models in analyzing long-term economic tendencies, particularly Marxian, Harrodian and Hicksian growth trajectories. A "trajectory à la Marx" is characterized by decreasing rates of profit and decreasing rates of growth of capital stock and output. The economies of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, and the United States (US) economy are then analyzed using data from the 1963-2003 Penn World Table. Chile's performance is at odds with that of the other countries. Around 1980, a structural break in labor productivity occurred in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. A Marx-biased technical change had predominated in these countries and the us prior to 1980, and included a falling rate of profit. Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico entered a period of technical change crisis during the 1980's, while in Argentina, a Hicks type pattern initially prevailed. In the US, a Harrod type of growth replaced the Marx type. Profitability was temporarily recovered, but in the final years, Latin American economies have either entered into a state of technical change crisis (Argentina) or continued into one (Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico). For the Latin American and us economies alike, there are signals that profitability problems have now returned. As the profit rate has decreased in Latin American countries, the growth rate of output has also dwindled.

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