Abstract

KLEIN, Lawrence R.  and  COUTINO, Alfredo. Methodologic Approach for a Model of Prognoses of High Frequency for the Mexican Economy. Inv. Econ [online]. 2004, vol.63, n.250, pp.47-58. ISSN 0185-1667.

A method for anticipating quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its main components, in advance of the official publication, is presented in this study. The technique combines the use of high-frequency information, times series equations, and regression analysis. The methodology estimates the quarterly GDP by three independent approaches: production, expenditure, and by principal components. It is based on the same approach used in the preparation of the national accounts, to estimate the production of final goods and services in an open economy. The model constitutes a system of purely econometric relationships with no subjective intervention of the economist in the determination of arbitrary assumptions or initial conditions. This methodology allows us to anticipate the current quarter GDP using monthly economic indicators.

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