Resumo

HERNANDEZ, Julio Javier  e  SCHMITZ, Michael. Seismic hazard with site effects and recurrence analysis of intensities for Caracas. Ing. sísm [online]. 2023, n.110, pp.45-85.  Epub 05-Fev-2024. ISSN 0185-092X.  https://doi.org/10.18867/ris.110.613.

A comparison between the seismic hazard in Caracas, considering site effects, and the recurrence of macroseismic intensities in downtown is exposed. The first was studied at rock sites for the city seismic microzonation with updates of the seismogenic model, and for the seismic code. Averages of the evaluations for several return periods, plus their uncertainties, are handled for the computation of the spectral responses of the city center, characterized by three microzones with site effects. The history of intensities is compiled, and those of the largest earthquakes that have affected Caracas are revised, presenting a recurrence analysis that estimates return periods for each intensity. The correlation between the intensities and the peak ground accelerations and velocities is studied, based on world data, obtaining functions that link them, including their uncertainties. Thus, spectral responses are associated to the intensities of several code return periods to compare with those from the hazard assessment, finding a good agreement between both studies. Probable seismic intensities in representative sites of the city (hills, center and deep basin) are assessed. An intensity of 7.5 or 8 is expected in the center between 2024 and 2060, which affects the constructions of the city, showing the need for a seismic risk mitigation plan.

Palavras-chave : seismic hazard; recurrence analysis; seismic microzoning; macroseismic intensity; Caracas.

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