Resumo

PLASENCIA-VAZQUEZ, Alexis Herminio; ESCALONA-SEGURA, Griselda  e  ESPARZA-OLGUIN, Ligia Guadalupe. Potential geographical distribution modeling of two neotropical parrot species using climatic and topographic variables. Acta Zool. Mex [online]. 2014, vol.30, n.3, pp.471-490. ISSN 2448-8445.

Topographic and climatic variables affect demographic rates and habitat selection of many species, so these variables are useful for generating potential distribution models. In this research, the most important topographic and climatic variables were identified for the generation of Yucatan parrot (Amazona xantholora) and Yellow-headed Parrot (Amazona oratrix) potential geographical distribution model in the Yucatan Peninsula. Models were generated using MaxEnt (algorithm based on Maximum Entropy). The presence records used were obtained from different available data bases from The National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (CONANP) and El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. One hundred replicas of models per species were developed and the best model selected is representing the median value. Different thresholds were applied to the best model in order to obtain a presence/ absence map. Presence and absence records taken from field work were used to validate the model. To know which of the variables contributed the most in the models generation, the ones with greater contribution in the variables Jackknife with the AUC data and because of the contribution percentage of each one, were selected. Amazona oratrix is potentially distributed in the southwestern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Amazona xantholora is present around much of the Peninsula, including the Cozumel Island, but it is absent within the areas where A. oratrix is located. The variable with greater contribution to A. oratrix model was the average temperature of the driest quarter, while for A. xantholora were the digital elevation model and the precipitation of the wettest and coldest quarters. For none of the two species it is observed a direct relationship between vegetation gradient established within the northern and southern of the Peninsula, and the potential geographical distribution area. The particular knowledge about the environmental factors that influence the potential geographical distribution of these species can be useful for conservation actions and for future evaluation of the changes that such distribution might suffer.

Palavras-chave : Abiotic factors; ecological niche; species distribution models; parrots; Psittacidae.

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