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Salud Pública de México
versión impresa ISSN 0036-3634
Resumen
RODRIGUEZ-IGLESIAS, Germán et al. Analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina: the impact of price changes on consumption and government revenues. Salud pública Méx [online]. 2017, vol.59, n.1, pp.95-101. ISSN 0036-3634. https://doi.org/10.21149/7861.
Objective:
To estimate cigarette demand and to simulate a tax policy targeted to reduce tobacco consumption.
Materials and methods:
Demand was estimated using a vector error correction model. Simulation exercises present the impact of a tax increase on consumption and revenues.
Results:
Changes in real income and the real price of cigarettes affect the demand for cigarettes in Argentina. The long term price elasticity is 0.279 (a 10% increase in real prices reduces cigarette consumption by 2.79% per quarter) and the long term income elasticity is 0.411 (a 10% increase in real income raises consumption by 4.11% per quarter). Even in a conservative scenario, simulations show that increasing the price of cigarettes by 100% using excise taxes would maximize revenues and reduce cigarette consumption.
Conclusion:
There is sufficient room to increase taxes, reducing cigarette consumption, while still increasing tax revenues.
Palabras llave : tobacco; taxes; elasticity; health policy; Argentina.