SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.52 número1Scholte waves on fluid-solid interfaces by means of an integral formulation índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Servicios Personalizados

Revista

Articulo

Indicadores

Links relacionados

  • No hay artículos similaresSimilares en SciELO

Compartir


Geofísica internacional

versión impresa ISSN 0016-7169

Resumen

NAVAR, José  y  LIZARRAGA-MENDIOLA, Liliana. Hydro-climatic variability and forest fires in Mexico's northern temperate forests. Geofís. Intl [online]. 2013, vol.52, n.1, pp.05-20. ISSN 0016-7169.

Global warming is likely modifying the hydrological cycle of forested watersheds. This report set as objectives to: a) assess the hydrological variables interception loss, I, potential and actual evapo-transpiration, E, Et, runoff, Q, and soil moisture content, θ; b) evaluate whether these variables are presenting consistent trends or oscillations that can be associated to global warming or climate variability; and c) relate θ to the number of wildfires and the burned area in Durango, Mexico. A mass balance approach estimated daily variables of the water cycle using sub-models for I and Et to calculate Q and θ for a time series from 1945 to 2007. Regression and auto-regressive and moving averaging (ARIMA) techniques evaluated the statistical significance of trends. The cumulative standardized z value magnified and ARIMA models projected statistically similar monthly and annual time series data of all variables of the water cycle. Regression analysis and ARIMA models showed monthly and annual P, I, E, and Et, Q, and θ do not follow consistent up or downward linear tendencies over time with statistical significance; they rather follow oscillations that could be adequately predicted by ARIMA models (r2 ≥ 0.70). There was a consistent statistical association (p ≤ 0.05) of θ with the number of wildfires and the area burned regardless of the different spatial scales used in evaluating these variables. The analysis shows seasonal variability is increasing over time as magnifying pulses of dryness and wetness, which may be the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change. Further research must center on using longer time series data, testing seasonal variability with additional statistical analysis, and incorporating new variables in the analysis.

Palabras llave : regression analysis; autoregressive moving average models; precipitation; interception loss; evpo-transpiration; runoff; soil moisture content; forests fires; pests and diseases.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Inglés     · Inglés ( pdf )

 

Creative Commons License Todo el contenido de esta revista, excepto dónde está identificado, está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons