Resumo

TORRES-ROJO, J. Manuel; MAGANA-TORRES, Octavio S.  e  MORENO-SANCHEZ, Francisco. Prediction of land use change/forest cover in Mexico Trough transition probabilities. Agrociencia [online]. 2016, vol.50, n.6, pp.769-785. ISSN 2521-9766.

This article presents a prediction model for land use change/ forest cover through the projection of transition probability matrices. The prediction model uses the information of forest cover/land use generated by INEGI in 1993 and 2000, and uses the information from 2007 to validate the model. The covers at national scale (1:250,000) are broken off by state and a transition probability matrix was generated of the types of vegetation/land use for each state. Then, through a system of equations of logit models, the transition probabilities were related to climate, physical and socioeconomic variables, in order to explain the change dynamics of forests and rainforests in the country. This methodology allows analyzing the changes in each type of vegetation isolated from the different uses, with which the prediction and understanding of the change dynamics of land cover are improved. This allows clearly identifying the causes of deforestation and provides information to develop and focus better policy instruments linked to the reduction of deforestation. The results showed that the basic transitions of forest regions to crops and grasslands follow different dynamics in forest and in rainforests. It is noteworthy that when identifying differences in the transitions, conditions can be distinguished where land use change can be persistent and where it is not.

Palavras-chave : Land use change/cover; deforestation; transition matrices; logit models.

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