Resumo

ZAVALA-PINEDA, M. Jesica; SALAS-GONZALEZ, J. María; LEOS-RODRIGUEZ, J. Antonio  e  SAGARNAGA-VILLEGAS, L. Myriam. The building of representative hog farmg production and analysis of its economic viability during the period 2009-2018. Agrociencia [online]. 2012, vol.46, n.7, pp.731-743. ISSN 2521-9766.

This study highlights the importance of prospective studies in designing a differentiated agricultural policy for Mexico and the identification of the potential effects of policies by sector. Therefore, the aim of the study was to analyze the economic feasibility of representative hog farms (URP) in the states of Jalisco, Sonora and Guanajuato. The panel technique was used to model 15 URP, with the participation of 137 producers, with similar farms in technology, scale, production system, geographic location and destination market of the product. By consensus, the relevant technical and financial information to build the Base Year 2008 was identified. With this information and using the 2009-2018 Baseline Scenario and historical risk levels reported by producers, economic viability scenarios during the period 2009-2018 were devised. The variables included were the probability of obtaining negative final cash reserves and facing real net capital losses; they were evaluated with the econometric program MexSim©. The analysis of results indicates that along the planning horizon, the smaller-scale URPs in the state of Guanajuato will face a situation of capital loss and negative cash flows in the early years (2009-2012), even when maintaining the government current transfer scheme, and will improve by the end of the period. The URPs of Jalisco and Sonora showed positive final cash reserves and capitalization throughout the period. Medium and large scale representative hog farmn is estimated to have a favorable economic performance with and without transfers. It is concluded that it is feasible to implement a policy of expanding production with low fiscal costs in order to close the growing gap between domestic production and consumption.

Palavras-chave : prospective analysis; Monte Carlo; panels.

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