Resumo

GONZALEZ-ROJAS, Karina; GARCIA-SALAZAR, José A.; MATUS-GARDEA, Jaime A.  e  MARTINEZ-SALDANA, Tomás. Vulnerability of the corn (Zea mays L.) domestic market facing international exogenous changes. Agrociencia [online]. 2011, vol.45, n.6, pp.733-744. ISSN 2521-9766.

The increase in imports of corn (Zea mays L.), the trade liberalization and the global energy crisis put in a vulnerable situation the domestic market of the grain. To measure the effects that global exogenous changes have on the corn market in México, an Armington model was formulated for the period 2004/2006. Analysis of the results indicates that a 10 % reduction in the corn planted acres in the U.S. would increase the import price in México by 8.7 % compared to those observed in 2004/2006. A 10 % increase in oil prices would increase world demand for corn, raising the price by 20.4 %. Application of policies that protect the domestic market is recommended; for example, policies to increase yields of corn in México by 15 % would reduce imports in 1493 thousands t and save $2282 million pesos in foreign exchange.

Palavras-chave : global supply and demand; imports; prices; Armington model.

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