Resumo

FERNANDEZ-CADENA, M. Andrés. Median-unbiased estimation of persistence of shocks to price series of six commodities. Agrociencia [online]. 2007, vol.41, n.3, pp.307-315. ISSN 2521-9766.

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to international prices of six basic commodities, comprising nearly 70% of Ecuadorian exports. Using the median unbiased estimator in monthly series from 1979 to 2005, it was found that the shocks to prices are of long duration and the variability of their persistence is broad. The times series of coffee, cacao, and shrimp exhibit infinite persistence to shocks, while those of crude oil, bananas and fish derivatives, although they are finite, are of variable duration. Implications of typical duration of shocks for policies are discussed since these indicate ways by which understanding of price behavior and trends can be reached, and these are inputs for designing stabilization schemes.

Palavras-chave : Stabilization; impulse-response; half-life; volatility.

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