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Mercados y negocios

versão On-line ISSN 2594-0163versão impressa ISSN 1665-7039

Merc. negocios vol.24 no.49 Zapopan Mai./Ago. 2023  Epub 30-Jun-2023

https://doi.org/10.32870/myn.vi49.7705 

Financial and economic indicators

Equilibrium prices of the titles: Sharpe and the Securities Valuation Model (CAPM)

1Universidad de Guadalajara (México) jgaytan@cucea.udg.mx


The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model used to calculate the profitability that an investor must demand when making an investment in a financial asset, depending on the risk he is assuming.

Asset valuation models did not exist until before the publications of the capital asset valuation model (CAPM) by William Sharpe (1963) and John Lintner (1965). These models embodied the first principles about the nature of tastes and investment opportunities as well as clear and testable predictions of risk and return.

William Sharpe was born in 1934 in Massachusetts, studied at the University of California at Los Angeles UCLA, worked as a researcher at the RAND Corporation, was a professor at the University of Washington (Seattle), (1961-1968), at the University of California at Irvine and professor at Stanford University (since 1970).

Sharpe was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1990, shared with Harry M. Markowitz and Merton M. Miller for their pioneering work in the theory of financial economics.

Harry Markowitz and William F. Sharpe developed the Capital Asset Valuation Model (CAPM), the model is based on the proposition that any required rate of return on a stock is equal to the risk-free rate plus a risk premium, where this reflects diversification.

Initially, estimating profits through Markowitz's theory of Portfolio Selection was impractical since estimating the benefits of diversification required calculating the covariance of returns between each pair of securities. William F. Sharpe initiated the study of the valuation of securities in 1960, for this, he worked with Markowitz on portfolio analysis based on a simplified model of the relationships between securities. This analysis at Markowitz's suggestion was called by Sharp the "single index model", now known as the "one-factor model". The basic assumption of this model is that security returns are related only by their responses to a common factor. Sharpe published in the article called (A simplified model for portfolio analysis, 1963), the normative results.

In 1968, Eugene Fama, when referring to the models of Sharpe and Lintner, used the terms "capital asset pricing models", and in 1970 the first references to the acronym, CAPM, were made.

Sharpe mentions that the CAPM is constructed using an approach that is familiar to a microeconomist. First, the maximization behavior is adopted, and then, the conditions under which the market equilibrates are investigated. In 1965, Jack Treynor in his article (How to rate management of investment funds); and, in 1965, Linter in his article (Security prices, risk, and maximal gains from diversification) came to similar conclusions. In 1966, Jan Mossin published (Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market) a version that also reaches the same relationship with a more general mode.

The proposal of Jack Treynor (1965) proposes that the evaluation of past performance is performed with a coefficient using as a measure of portfolio risk, the indicator is then designated as "beta coefficient".

Beta is the key element of CAMP. The Beta coefficient is the key element of the CAMP, it is a measure of the market risk of the stock and the degree to which the returns of a given stock move with the stock market.

Economic and financial indicators are useful tools that benefit organizations by facilitating timely and appropriate decision-making in relation to their corporate and financial strategies.

Next, the evolution of some economic and financial indicators of the Mexican environment is described and shown to facilitate decision-making related to personal and business strategies in an integral manner.

  1. National Consumer Price Index (INPC, Spanish)

  2. The Price and Quotation Index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (IPC, Spanish)

  3. Exchange rate

  4. Equilibrium interbank interest rate (TIIE, Spanish)

  5. CETES rate of return

  6. Investment units (UDIS, Spanish)

1. NATIONAL CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (INPC)

Born in 1995 and reflecting changes in consumer prices, measures the general increase in prices in the country. It is calculated fortnightly by the Bank of Mexico and INEGI (2021). INPC is published in the Official Gazette of the Federation on the 10th and 25th of each month. The reference period is the second half of December 2010.

Table 1 Accumulated inflation in the year (Base: 2nd. Fortnight of December 2010 = 100 with data 

Periodo 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Enero 1.48 0.77 0.98 0.79 0.90 -0.09 0.38 1.70 0.53 0.09 0.48 0.86 0.59 0.76
Febrero 2.15 1.42 1.47 1.46 1.15 0.09 0.82 2.29 0.91 0.06 0.90 1.50 1.43 1.24
Marzo 2.52 1.84 1.55 1.99 1.43 0.51 0.97 2.92 1.24 0.44 0.85 2.34 2.43 1.51
Abril 1.98 0.72 0.69 1.81 1.24 0.25 0.65 3.04 0.90 0.50 -0.17 2.67 2.98 1.47
Mayo 0.60 -0.70 -0.65 0.95 0.91 -0.26 0.20 2.92 0.73 0.21 0.22 2.88 3.17
Junio 0.49 -0.41 -0.41 1.12 1.09 -0.09 0.31 3.18 1.12 0.27 0.76 3.43 4.04
Julio 0.56 -0.04 0.32 1.14 1.42 0.06 0.57 3.57 1.66 0.65 1.43 4.04 4.81
Agosto 0.91 0.30 0.92 1.31 1.73 0.27 0.86 4.08 2.26 0.63 1.82 4.24 5.54
Septiembre 1.27 0.73 1.12 1.61 2.18 0.27 1.47 4.41 2.69 0.89 2.06 4.88 6.19
Octubre 2.35 2.33 2.12 2.77 2.74 1.16 2.09 5.06 3.22 1.44 2.68 5.76 6.79
Noviembre 3.89 4.87 3.86 4.57 3.57 1.71 2.89 6.15 4.10 2.26 2.76 6.97 7.41
Diciembre 4.19 5.81 3.97 5.21 4.08 2.13 3.36 6.77 4.83 2.83 3.15 7.35 7.82

Source: Own elaboration (INEGI, 2023). Route: Indicadores económicos de coyuntura > Índices de precios >

Índice nacional de precios al consumidor. Base segunda quincena de julio de 2018=100 > Mensual > Índice > Índice general

Source: Own elaboration (INEGI, 2023). Route: Indicadores económicos de coyuntura > Índices de precios > Índice nacional de precios al consumidor. Base segunda quincena de julio de 2018=100 > Mensual > Índice > Índice general

Graph 1 Inflation in Mexico (2010-2022 accumulated at the end of the year)  

Source: Own elaboration (INEGI, 2023). Route: Indicadores económicos de coyuntura > Índices de precios > Índice nacional de precios al consumidor. Base segunda quincena de julio de 2018=100 > Mensual > Índice > Índice general

Graph 2 Inflation in Mexico (accumulated January-April 2023)  

2. THE PRICE AND QUOTATION INDEX OF THE MEXICAN STOCK EXCHANGE (IPC)

Represents the change in the values traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange concerning the previous day to determine the percentage of rising or fall of the most representative shares of the companies listed therein.

Table 2 The Price and Quotation Index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (Base: October 1978, 0.78=100)  

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
36,982 37,422 45,278 40,879 40,951 43,631 47,001 50,456 43,988 44,862 42,986 51,331 54,564
37,020 37,816 44,121 38,783 44,190 43,715 46,857 47,438 42,824 41,324 44,593 53,401 52,758
37,441 39,521 44,077 40,462 43,725 45,881 48,542 46,125 43,281 34,554 47,246 56,537 53,904
36,963 39,461 42,263 40,712 44,582 45,785 49,261 48,354 44,597 36,470 48,010 51,418 55,121
35,833 37,872 41,588 41,363 44,704 45,459 48,788 44,663 42,749 36,122 50,886 51,753
36,558 40,199 40,623 42,737 45,054 45,966 49,857 47,663 43,161 37,716 50,290 47,524
35,999 40,704 40,838 43,818 44,753 46,661 51,012 49,698 40,863 37,020 50,868 48,144
35,721 39,422 39,492 45,628 43,722 47,541 51,210 49,548 42,623 36,841 53,305 44,919
33,503 40,867 40,185 44,986 42,633 47,246 50,346 49,504 43,011 37,459 51,386 44,627
36,160 41,620 41,039 45,028 44,543 48,009 48,626 43,943 43,337 36,988 51,310 49,922
36,829 41,834 42,499 44,190 43,419 45,286 47,092 41,733 42,820 41,779 49,699 51,685
37,077 43,706 42,727 43,146 42,998 45,643 49,354 41,640 43,541 44,067 53,272 48,464

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023).

https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=7&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF57&locale=es

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023) https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=7&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF57&locale=es

Graph 3 The Price and Quotation Index of the Mexican Stock Exchange, 2011 - 2022 (Score at the end of each year) 

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023). https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=7&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF57&locale=es

Graph 4 The Price and Quotation Index of the Mexican Stock Exchange, January-April 2023 (Score at the end of each month) 

3. EXCHANGE RATE

It is the value of the Mexican peso with respect to the dollar calculated with the daily average of the five most important banks in the country, which reflects the spot price (cash), negotiated between banks. It is highly related to Inflation, the interest rate, and the Mexican Stock Exchange.

Table 3 Exchange rate (National currency per US dollar, parity at the end of each period)  

Periodo 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Enero 12.02 12.95 12.71 13.37 14.69 18.45 21.02 18.62 19.04 18.91 20.22 20.74 18.79
Febrero 12.17 12.87 12.87 13.30 14.92 18.17 19.83 18.65 19.26 19.78 20.94 20.65 18.34
Marzo 11.97 12.80 12.36 13.08 15.15 17.40 18.81 18.33 19.38 23.48 20.44 19.99 18.04
Abril 11.59 13.20 12.16 13.14 15.22 19.40 19.11 18.86 19.01 23.93 20.18 20.57 18.00
Mayo 11.63 13.91 12.63 12.87 15.36 18.45 18.51 19.75 19.64 22.18 19.92 19.69
Junio 11.84 13.66 13.19 13.03 15.57 18.91 17.90 20.06 19.21 23.09 19.91 20.13
Julio 11.65 13.28 12.73 13.06 16.21 18.86 17.69 18.55 19.99 22.20 19.85 20.34
Agosto 12.41 13.27 13.25 13.08 16.89 18.58 17.88 19.07 20.07 21.89 20.06 20.09
Septiembre 13.42 12.92 13.01 13.45 17.01 19.50 18.13 18.90 19.68 22.14 20.56 20.09
Octubre 13.20 13.09 12.89 13.42 16.45 18.84 19.15 19.80 19.16 21.25 20.53 19.82
Noviembre 14.03 13.04 13.09 13.72 16.55 20.55 18.58 20.41 19.61 20.14 21.45 19.40
Diciembre 13.99 13.01 13.08 14.72 17.21 20.73 19.79 19.68 18.87 19.91 20.47 19.47

NOTE: Exchange rate FIX by The Banco de México, used for settle obligations denominated in foreign currency. Quote at the end

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023).

https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=6&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF102&locale=es

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023). https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=6&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF102&locale=es

Graph 5 Exchange rate (National currency per US dollar, 2011-2022, FIX parity at the end of each year)  

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023). https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=6&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF102&locale=es

Graph 6 Exchange rate (National currency per US dollar, January-April 2023, FIX parity at the end of each month)  

1. EQUILIBRIUM INTERBANK INTEREST RATE (TIIE)

On March 23, 1995, the Bank of Mexico, to establish an interbank interest rate that better reflects market conditions, released the Interbank Equilibrium Interest Rate through the Official Gazette of the Federation.

Table 4 Equilibrium interbank interest rate (28-day quote)  

Periodo 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Enero 4.91 4.86 4.79 4.84 3.78 3.29 3.56 6.15 7.66 8.59 7.50 4.47 5.72 10.78
Febrero 4.92 4.84 4.78 4.80 3.79 3.29 4.05 6.61 7.83 8.54 7.29 4.36 6.02 11.10
Marzo 4.92 4.84 4.77 4.35 3.81 3.30 4.07 6.68 7.85 8.51 6.74 4.28 6.33 11.34
Abril 4.94 4.85 4.75 4.33 3.80 3.30 4.07 6.89 7.85 8.50 6.25 4.28 6.73 11.53
Mayo 4.94 4.85 4.76 4.30 3.79 3.30 4.10 7.15 7.86 8.51 5.74 4.29 7.01
Junio 4.94 4.85 4.77 4.31 3.31 3.30 4.11 7.36 8.10 8.49 5.28 4.32 7.42
Julio 4.92 4.82 4.78 4.32 3.31 3.31 4.59 7.38 8.11 8.47 5.19 4.52 8.04
Agosto 4.90 4.81 4.79 4.30 3.30 3.33 4.60 7.38 8.10 8.26 4.76 4.65 8.50
Septiembre 4.90 4.78 4.81 4.03 3.29 3.33 4.67 7.38 8.12 8.04 4.55 4.75 8.89
Octubre 4.87 4.79 4.83 3.78 3.28 3.30 5.11 7.38 8.15 7.97 4.51 4.98 9.56
Noviembre 4.87 4.80 4.85 3.80 3.31 3.32 5.57 7.39 8.34 7.78 4.48 5.13 10.00
Diciembre 4.89 4.79 4.85 3.79 3.31 3.55 6.11 7.62 8.60 7.55 4.49 5.72 10.53

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023).

https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=18&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF101&locale=es

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023). https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=18&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF101&locale=es

Graph 7 Equilibrium interbank interest rate, 2010- 2022 (at the end of each year)  

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023). https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=18&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF101&locale=es

Graph 8 Equilibrium interbank interest rate, January-April 2023 (28-day quote)  

5. CETES RATE OF RETURN

Table 5 CETES rate of return (28-day)  

Periodo 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Enero 4.49 4.14 4.27 4.15 3.14 2.67 3.08 5.83 7.25 7.95 7.04 4.22 5.50 10.80
Febrero 4.49 4.04 4.32 4.19 3.16 2.81 3.36 6.06 7.40 7.93 6.91 4.02 5.94 11.04
Marzo 4.45 4.27 4.24 3.98 3.17 3.04 3.80 6.32 7.47 8.02 6.59 4.08 6.52 11.34
Abril 4.44 4.28 4.29 3.82 3.23 2.97 3.74 6.50 7.46 7.78 5.84 4.06 6.68 11.27
Mayo 4.52 4.31 4.39 3.72 3.28 2.98 3.81 6.56 7.51 8.07 5.38 4.07 6.90
Junio 4.59 4.37 4.34 3.78 3.02 2.96 3.81 6.82 7.64 8.18 4.85 4.03 7.56
Julio 4.60 4.14 4.15 3.85 2.83 2.99 4.21 6.99 7.73 8.15 4.63 4.35 8.05
Agosto 4.52 4.05 4.13 3.84 2.77 3.04 4.24 6.94 7.73 7.87 4.50 4.49 8.35
Sep. 4.43 4.23 4.17 3.64 2.83 3.10 4.28 6.99 7.69 7.61 4.25 4.69 9.25
Oct. 4.03 4.36 4.21 3.39 2.90 3.02 4.69 7.03 7.69 7.62 4.22 4.93 9.00
Nov. 3.97 4.35 4.23 3.39 2.85 3.02 5.15 7.02 7.83 7.46 4.28 5.05 9.70
Dic. 4.30 4.34 4.05 3.29 2.81 3.14 5.61 7.17 8.02 7.25 4.24 5.49 10.10

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023).

https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=22&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF107&locale=es

Graph 9 CETES rate of return 2010- 2022 (at the end of each year)  

Graph 10 CETES rate of return, January-April 2023 (at the end of each month)  

6. INVESTMENT UNITS (UDIS)

The UDI is a unit of account of constant real value to denominate credit titles. It does not apply to checks, commercial contracts, or other acts of commerce.

Table 6 Investment units (value concerning pesos)  

Periodo 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Enero 4.37 4.56 4.73 4.89 5.10 5.29 5.41 5.62 5.97 6.25 6.44 6.64 7.12 7.69
Febrero 4.41 4.57 4.75 4.92 5.13 5.29 5.43 5.69 6.00 6.25 6.46 6.70 7.18 7.74
Marzo 4.44 4.59 4.75 4.94 5.15 5.30 5.44 5.71 6.02 6.26 6.49 6.75 7.24 7.77
Abril 4.46 4.59 4.75 4.97 5.15 5.32 5.45 5.75 6.03 6.28 6.43 6.79 7.31 7.78
Mayo 4.43 4.58 4.71 4.96 5.13 5.29 5.42 5.75 6.01 6.27 6.42 6.81 7.33
Junio 4.41 4.55 4.74 4.95 5.13 5.28 5.42 5.75 6.01 6.26 6.44 6.83 7.36
Julio 4.42 4.57 4.77 4.95 5.14 5.28 5.42 5.76 6.04 6.27 6.49 6.87 7.43
Agosto 4.43 4.58 4.78 4.95 5.16 5.29 5.44 5.79 6.07 6.29 6.52 6.90 7.47
Septiembre 4.44 4.59 4.80 4.97 5.18 5.31 5.45 5.82 6.11 6.29 6.55 6.92 7.53
Octubre 4.47 4.61 4.83 4.99 5.20 5.33 5.49 5.84 6.13 6.31 6.57 6.97 7.57
Noviembre 4.50 4.64 4.85 5.02 5.23 5.36 5.53 5.89 6.17 6.35 6.60 7.04 7.62
Diciembre 4.53 4.69 4.87 5.06 5.27 5.38 5.56 5.93 6.23 6.39 6.61 7.11 7.65

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023).

https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CP150&locale=es

Source: Own elaboration (BANXICO, 2023). https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CP150&locale=es

Graph 11 Investment units 2010-2022 (At the end of the year)  

At the 2004 symposium marking the fortieth anniversary of Sharpe's paper, Fortieth Anniversary of CAPM, André Perold notes that CAPM revolutionized modern finance, providing the first coherent framework for relating an investment's return and risk. Its diffusion is widespread, and it is a basic piece for the teaching of finance.

Six decades later, the CAPM is still widely used in estimating the cost of equity capital to firms and evaluating the performance of managed portfolios. The appeal of CAPM is its logic and simple predictions about how to measure risk and about the relationship between expected return and risk.

REFERENCES

BANXICO. (2023). Sistema de Información Económica. Mexico: Banco de México. Link: http://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/bie/Links ]

Fama, E. & Kenneth R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Outlook, 18(3), 25-46. DOI: 10.1257/0895330042162430 [ Links ]

INEGI. (2023). Banco de Información Económica. Mexico: Instituto Nacional de Geografía y Estadística. Link: http://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/bie/Links ]

Lintner, J. (1965), Prices of safety, risk and maximum returns of diversification. The Journal of Finance, 20, 587-615. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.15406261.1965.tb02930.x [ Links ]

Mossin, J. (1966). Equilibrium in a capital asset market. Econometrica, 34(4), 768-783. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910098 [ Links ]

Perold, A. F. (2004). The Capital Asset Pricing Model. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(3), 3-24. [ Links ]

Sharpe, W. (1963). A simplified model for portfolio analysis. Management Sciences, 9, 277-293. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.277 [ Links ]

Treynor, J. L. (1965). How to qualify the management of investment funds. Harvard Business Review, 43(1), 63-75. [ Links ]

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