Introduction:

The pathophysiological principles of pneumonia secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection have been described, where the cytokine cascade was identified as the main factor for the development of organic lesions. Measurements of inflammatory biochemical markers are currently being carried out in search of their relationship with prognosis and possible complications. In a recent study, an index was made relating interleukin 6 and lymphocyte levels and their association with mortality in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The index of immune dysregulation (IL-6/lymphocytes) could allow estimating the patients that evolve towards acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Objectives:

To establish whether there is a relationship between the levels of the immune dysregulation index and the appearance of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

Material and methods:

We conducted a retrolective, observational cohort study, in which patients admitted to the ABC Medical Center with the diagnosis of pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2 from March to July of 2020 were included, in them, measurements of interleukin 6 and lymphocytes on admission and their progress and development of complications were evaluated. A univariate analysis of the selected factors was carried out; the statistical analysis was elaborated in SPSS v 22.1, frequency measures were examined and the analysis of the risk factors was carried out with the Fisher and χ2 tests.

Results:

346 patients were analyzed, the immune dysregulation index presented an average of 157 in the group corresponding to ARDS, while in the control group the average was 38. Of the patients with a diagnosis of ARDS, 18.6% died, while in the control group only 0.47%. The ROC curve was used for the analysis of the sensitivity and specificity of the index as a predictor of evolution towards ARDS with a sensitivity finding of 68.2% and a specificity of 77% with a cut-off point of 99.

Conclusion:

The prediction of complications in the context of SARS-CoV-2 will allow timely measures to be taken. The existence of predictive indices is a useful tool but it requires multiple and validated analyses in different populations to have a high level of safety when making decisions based on them. In this study, the immune dysregulation index has been shown as a possible predictor of evolution towards ARDS; however, the establishment of therapeutic measures should continue in relation to clinical, biochemical and imaging findings.

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