Resumo

BALTAZAR LARIOS, Fernado  e  ESPARZA, Luz Judith R.. Mortality modeling in Mexico 2000-2015 using phase type distributions. Inter disciplina [online]. 2021, vol.9, n.25, pp.305-328.  Epub 22-Nov-2021. ISSN 2448-5705.  https://doi.org/10.22201/ceiich.24485705e.2021.25.79978.

In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to construct mortality tables with Mexican experience of population and mortality of 2000-2015, this model combines the physiological age of people with the probability of suffering incidents that alter it. In this proposal, the aging process is modeled by a Markov jump process with finite state space and a single absorbing state. Non-absorbing states represent the physiological ages, and the absorbing state is the death, so the time of death follows a phase-type distribution. The proposed model allows the incorporation of different factors -genetics, diet, physical exercise, accidents, etc.- that affect the mortality, and thus, better estimates of the probabilities of death are obtained. Moreover, two implementations of the model are presented to construct mortality tables that are compared with the observed mortality data.

Palavras-chave : mortality; aging process; physiological age; phase-type distributions.

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