Resumo

PENA, Sergio  e  FUENTES, César M.. Land Use Changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua: A Systems Dynamic Model. Estud. front [online]. 2007, vol.8, n.16, pp.65-89. ISSN 2395-9134.

The objective of this article is to offer a model to simulate land use changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. The city faces serious challenges posed by accelerated demographic and urban growth. In its struggle to respond to urban land development pressures, governments, planning agencies and social civil organizations are overwhelmed by a multitude of concerns. The analysis of land use change revolves around two central and interrelated questions: What drives/ causes land use change? What are the environmental and socio-demographic impacts of land change? The land use changes are approached as a complex system in which the elements that define the system and how these relate to each are identified. The development of dynamic simulation models that allow for the generation of different scenarios can be an important tool for urban planning. The software used to simulate the land uses changes is Stella^®. The results of the model simulated the demand for land among different land uses (commercial, industrial and residential) in the next 10 or 20 years.

Palavras-chave : land use changes; system of dynamic model; Stella; Ciudad Juárez.

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