Resumo

TSOULFIDIS, Lefteris  e  TSALIKI, Persefoni. The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of The Covid-19 Pandemic. Inv. Econ [online]. 2022, vol.81, n.321, pp.3-29.  Epub 02-Jun-2023. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2022.321.81476.

In this article, we argue the rate of profit in combination with the movement of the real net profits determines the phase-change of the economy in its long cyclical pattern. Since WWII, the US and the world economy have experienced two such long cycles. The pandemic COVID-19 has deepened a recession that has been already underway since 2007. The growth rates in the first post-pandemic years are expected to be high; however, soon after, the economies will find themselves back to their old recessionary growth paths. The onset of a new long-cycle requires the restoration of profitability, which can be sustained only through the introduction of ‘disruptive’ innovations backed by suitable institutional arrangements.

Palavras-chave : Long recession; secular stagnation; pandemic; long cycles; institutional changes; disruptive innovations; B5; D33; E1; N12; O51.

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