Objective:

Indicate the possible influence of vaccination coverage with Calmette-Guérin bacilli (BCG) on indicators of mortality andmorbidity from COVID-19 in countries with a consolidated epidemic curve. of association and potential impact: relative risk (RR)

Materials and methods:

This is a mixed ecological study of all the countries that make up the World Health Organization (WHO). Those with an epidemic curve consolidated by COVID-19 updated to June 1, 2020 and information taken from the vaccination database 1980-2018 Estimates of National Immunization Coverage, both sources of WHO, were chosen, contrasting the coverage and policies of universal vaccination and income per capita with lethality, mortality and incidence in 45 countries that met the criteria applying measures of association and potential impact: relative risk (RR), risk reduction (RDR), preventable deaths in vaccinated (MEV%), preventable cases in vaccinated (CEV%) with confidence interval for rates with 99% significance.

Results:

Countries with coverage greater than 60% and current universal vaccination policy in contrast to countries with zero% coverage, with reduction in mortality and morbidity indicators: Mortality 5.8-9.7%, mortality 883.8-937 per 106 (p <0.01) inhabitants, incidence 4,260-4,351.6 per 105 (p <0.01) inhabitants; Increase of: MEV% 94.1-99.8% (p <0.01) and CEV% 96.9-99.6% (p <0.01). The greatest contrast of indicators were for countries with lower middle income and upper middle income. Countries with coverage less than 60% versus zero% coverage (both groups with high incomes) with reduction (except case fatality): case fatality-1.861 to -4.703% (p> 0.01), mortality774.3-827.8 per 106 (p <0.01) inhabitants, incidence 4,193.13- 4,212.93 per 105 (p <0.01) inhabitants, increase of: MEV% 82.5- 88.2% (p <0.01), CEV% 96.0-96.5 (p <0.01) .Also greater difference of indicators for countries with coverage close to 60% with current universal vaccination policy.

Conclusions:

Countries with BCG vaccination coverage greater than 60% with maintenance of universal vaccination policies, have a greater reduction in mortality indicators, morbidity from COVID-19 and a significant increase in cases and deaths, suggesting possible influence by vaccination among other factors.

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