Resumen

UGARTECHE GALARZA, Oscar. Triple arbitration, expectations and economic growth. Economía UNAM [online]. 2016, vol.13, n.38, pp.61-95. ISSN 1665-952X.

In this work an aspect of financialization, the triple arbitration will be seen. This is defined as the sum of movements of short-term capital in Latin America from 2001 to 2014, induced by the management of the negative interest rate by the Federal Reserve in the first decade and a half of the 21st century and its impact on exchange rates and the prices of raw materials. Then appellant will check the impact of the expectations untied from March, 2014 by the advertisement on behalf of the President of the FED, Janet Yellen, who will not raise "now" the rate of interest in The United States. We will see it in the prices of the raw materials (specifically oil, copper and wheat), the exchange rate and economic growth. The hypothesis is that capital move for casualties of the interest rate of the mature economies to the emerging but return by expectations. In this way just the official announcement of a possible rise in future to produce a substantial effect on the exchange rates, interest rates and prices of financial assets in emerging economies, with consequences on the growth of GDP in the present.

Palabras llave : Commercial Policy; International Business; Capital Movements.

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